Stern: I underestimated the threat
April 23rd 2008

His report estimating the cost of inaction over climate change was the catalyst for green action around the globe, but eighteen months on from its release, Sir Nicholas Stern says he may have underestimated the risk.

"Emissions are growing much faster than we'd thought, the absorptive capacity of the planet is less than we'd thought, the risks of greenhouse gases are potentially bigger than more cautious estimates, and the speed of climate change seems to be faster," Stern told news agency Reuters at a conference in London.

Following the release of Stern's report, which predicted that average global temperatures will rise by 2-3 degrees centigrade in the next 50 years if carry on as we are, some climate sceptics accused him of scaremongering and over estimating the threat by as much as twenty times.

However Stern suggests there is an increasing body of evidence which indicates just the opposite. In particular Stern drew attention to evidence showing the planet's oceans were increasingly saturated and can't absorb as much of the main greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) as they could before.

Stern also commented to Reuters on the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which has been working to produce regular summaries on climate science.

"The IPCC has done a tremendous job but things are moving on," he said. "The IPCC's (cautious) approach to this is entirely understandable and sensible, but if you're looking ahead and asking about the risk then you do have to go beyond."

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